Get Your War On

The fat is, at long last, in the fire. Russia and Georgia are doing the Big Dance.

TBILISI, Georgia -- Russian television reports that Russian troops are moving into South Ossetia. The development comes hours after Prime Minister Vladimir Putin warned Georgia that its attack on South Ossetia will draw retaliation. Channel 1 television showed a convoy of Russian tanks that it said entered South Ossetia. The convoy was expected to reach the provincial capital, Tskhinvali, in a few hours.

The 'frozen conflicts' in Ossetia and Abkhazia have served for years as big blocks of ice keeping a Russo-Georgian war from thawing to life. No longer. It seems each side sees an advantage to acting NOW: the West is busy, China is busy. But perhaps more importantly, Saakashvili's position has been more or less untenable for some time, and Russia has its own high-profile Olympics coming around the bend. To lance the boil now is, just maybe, to heal in time later. Neither America nor Europe will step in, here. Nor should they. 

On the other hand it is not altogether clear that Georgia will come out of this episode a free and independent country. Putin would be a fool to be toying with annexation. But the nearest analogy at hand might be the Mexican-American war: completely overrun the losing power and hand them back, literally, their own ass -- a rump state enjoyed at victor's sufferance. 

The big winner here: Abkhazia, a much more delightful and appealing land than Ossetia (sorry, guys), with the potential...long borne out in Black Sea history...to be the hottest spot north of Dubai, south of Moscow, east of Myconos and west of Goa. 

Bottom line: There is no safe bet. Don't leave your TV set.

 

UPDATE: Moscow Times reports Saak wants an "immediate cease-fire" -- ? Should have thought about that a few hours ago, eh? And a promise of 'full autonomy'...has he been spooked? Is it too late?

UPDATE 2: No cease fire. Heavy fire instead. Here come the tanks. 

UPDATE 3: Russia takes the opportunity to beef up its Abkhaz presence. Those US and European cries for an end to violence need a grain of salt:

Russia called an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council to respond to the crisis, but members failed to agree on a Russian statement calling on both sides to renounce the use of force. 

UPDATE 4: ITAR-TASS is reporting that Georgia had planned to "storm" the South Ossetian capital "overnight" (no dice), and, perhaps more interestingly, that it's "hard to contact" the commanders of Russia's in-field peacekeepers.

UPDATE 5: At CNN, Saak compares this to the Soviet invasions of Czechoslovakia and Hungary. Not about Georgia but "the basic values" the US shares. "We are under attack because we never wanted to accept the old corrupt rules of the game; we wanted to be close to the west." "An ideal time to attack a small country...a very well-planned provocation." Denies flat out that Georgia initiated any attack on South Ossetia. Compares Georgia to Finland 1939, Afghanistan 1979. "It took the courage of Ronald Reagan to reverse the Soviet adventures"...wraps himself in human rights and freedom. Throws down rhetorical gauntlet to Bush: put your _____ where your mouth is. But won't demand an intervention. It's simply "a moment of truth" for Bush, US, Western world, "all of us." Georgia as an acid test for "democracy and freedom" and human rights: "a crucial moment in history." Clearly, Saak is concerned about what might happen without outside intervention. 

Another US ceasefire demand; McCain wants a Russian withdrawal. But in light of Russian attempts to get the Security Council to agree on a bilateral ceasefire, this snip of the McCain statement is extra fascinating:

The U.S. should immediately convene an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council to call on Russia to reverse course.

Hmm. And what does Obama want?

UPDATE 6: Early reports suggest Obama is calling for restraint on both sides. An August surprise? A shock foreign policy wedge issue? Breaking...

MORE...the crisis not a big moneymaker, so far, for Russia...

AND...this seems worth quoting:

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meanwhile said Moscow had received reports that villages in South Ossetia were being ethnically cleansed, according to Reuters.com. 

"We are receiving reports that a police of ethnic cleansing was being conducted in villages in South Ossetia, the number of refugees is climbing, the panic is growing, people are trying to save their lives," he was reported saying. 

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, quoted by the Russian news agency Interfax, said Russians had died because of Georgia's operations. Russia "will not allow the deaths of our compatriots to go unpunished" and "those guilty will receive due punishment," he said. "My duty as Russian president is to safeguard the lives and dignity of Russian citizens, wherever they are. This is what is behind the logic of the steps we are undertaking now."

UPDATE 7: Obama statement:

I strongly condemn the outbreak of violence in Georgia, and urge an immediate end to armed conflict. Now is the time for Georgia and Russia to show restraint, and to avoid an escalation to full scale war. Georgia’s territorial integrity must be respected. All sides should enter into direct talks on behalf of stability in Georgia, and the United States, the United Nations Security Council, and the international community should fully support a peaceful resolution to this crisis.

That puts him closer to the Bush administration line -- that is, the line of restraint and evenhandedness -- than McCain!

UPDATE 8: Hits from Bloomberg:

* Georgia will pull half its 2,000-strong Iraq force in as few as the next 72 hours;

* Georgia's NATO hopes should probably be considered dead; and maybe most importantly,

* Putin has dropped the w-bomb, stating that "war has started."

UPDATE 9: Reuters has a levelheaded first round of insta-analysis from a range of regional experts. Bottom line, in tune with mine: Saak took a probably unnecessary gamble and forced the hand of a West that won't ride to the rescue, for reasons that should've seemed obvious...or obvious enough.

The Guardian concurs, throwing Saak's allegations of Russian 'perfect timing' back in his face. It already looks like Saak has pulled his country into a PR debacle. Observe:

The timing suggests Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili may have been counting on surprise to fulfill his longtime pledge to wrest back control of South Ossetia – a key to his hold on power. Saakashvili agreed the timing was not coincidental, but accused Russia of being the aggressor. "Most decision makers have gone for the holidays," he said in an interview with CNN. "Brilliant moment to attack a small country."

When even the AP has seen fit to skin your cat, where do you have to turn? Jonah Goldberg?

UPDATE 10: Defining expectations down:

Vasil Sikharulidze, Georgia's ambassador to Washington, said in an interview, "We are asking our friends, and the United States among them, to somehow to try to mediate and try to persuade Russia to stop this military aggression and invasion of Georgia." "What we heard is that the State Department and the entire administration is deeply concerned and that they are heavily engaged with Russia trying to de-escalate the situation," he said.

Dan Nexon (with lots of updates and links):

I just want to emphasize that a lot of people with knowledge of Georgia have been raising alarms about the risks involved with a close US-Georgian relationship, particularly to the degree that Saakashvili believes it gives him more "strategic cover" than he actually has. 

Saakashvili has sunk an enormous amount of his political capital into resolving--in Georgia's favor--the frozen conflicts. This never made sense, as Saakashvili has a decent record to point to when it comes making the Georgian state more functional and less patrimonial. But, for whatever reason, he decided to stake his reputation on goals that the Russians will not accept. 

I can't say for certain, but I do get the sense that the Bush Administration missed major warning signs. To paraphrase something a very smart friend of mine once told me: the problem is that Georgia is one of the few "success stories" the Bush Administration can point to for its democratization agenda.

UPDATE 11: Here it is: pitched battle between Russian peacekeepers and Georgian regulars. Interestingly mild spin from Russia's NATO rep (who cut his vacation short):

[NATO] has taken a detached and neutral position. It is receiving and analyzing information. Our NATO partners have had enough time to take a close look at Saakashvili and to understand his game.

Indeed. Still no sign -- no sign at all -- that anyone in Europe or America wants to bail out the Saak. Even McCain, who seems to be alone in demanding everything of Russia and almost nothing of Georgia, has shown no interest in sending in the cavalry, airlifting Georgia's Iraq contingent back home, or lifting a little finger to get Saak out of trouble. 

Speculation: if the Russians had given any hint or indication of a planned incursion into Georgia proper, the 'detached and neutral' position of this afternoon would never even have seen the light of day. But the more this is Georgia's fault, the more that kind of operation looks excusable.

UPDATE 12: Barring anything (extra) strange & savage, this will close out coverage for the day:

* The UNSC reconvenes, close to agreement on wording this time. 

* I'd missed this chestnut from Saak the first time around:

If the whole world does not stop Russia today, then Russian tanks will be able to reach any other European capital.

His frustration is understandable given what a botch this has become, but Helsinki is safe, and they will sleep soundly tonight in Warsaw and Berlin.

Comments

[Robert Karol]

No offense, but I really don't understand why, after all your griping re: China, you are so happy for Russia's false resurgence. They seem to embody everything you rail against: corruption, lax morals, overconsumption leading to a cultural collapse. They're as much a pink police state (to use your term) as China. The only difference is, China seems to be moving somewhat towards freedom, whereas Russia moves further and further away from it.

And now Russia seeks to extend its territory...for what purpose? The strong man you claim has held Russia together has been unable or unwilling to actually arrest the decay at the center of his state. So when Russia collapses again, this new expansionism will only assure that it will take a larger chunk of the world with it.

[James Poulos]

One thing at a time. I don't think I've conveyed happiness about Russia's willingness to fight to keep SOssetia free of Georgian troops. I have conveyed satisfaction that nobody step in to stake sides in this fight.

But you're right, of course, that Russia is on the pink police state program just like China, although their versions of it differ significantly. And the contours of those differences are cultural. China is moving quickly enough toward certain personal freedoms, but not political ones; it's not clear to me that this marks a great contrast with Russia.

But I'm not worried about China collapsing. I'm worried, as you suggest, about Russia collapsing. And I view this as something that would rank as one of the world's great catastrophes. So I'm eager to seek out ways in which the West can avoid courses of action that might damage Russia as it works to restore itself. This is especially important because I am persuaded that if we make an enemy of Russia, our foreign policy -- any US foreign policy worthy of the name -- will fail. China doesn't present such a problem. There is effectively zero risk of a "new cold war" with Beijing.

[The Reticulator]

Why would you call Putin a fool, either to annex outright or to treat Georgia as some appendage under heavy Moscow control? What's the downside to him? He's gaining valuable information about how far he can push before anybody will say NO. So far he doesn't know his limits, but he now has a pretty good idea that that he can have Georgia without any dire consequences.

[Robert Karol]

Sorry, I didn't mean to say you wanted war. It's just, once war starts, things tend to spiral out of control. And I'm not sure if we can count on other countries to remain uninvolved.

And what's interesting is how much the US is involved in the area thanks to Iraq. Georgia is/was helping us out there. It's going to be very hard to turn them down on intervention after they helped us with our little attempt at empire. And don't forget that, while Russia and Georgia are duking it out and taking the spotlight, Turkey right below them has their own little issue with...Iraqi Kurdistan.

People forget that, when you have an empire, no matter how small or humble, you end up getting dragged into a lot of problems you wouldn't have if you stayed at home.

[James Poulos]

Reticulator: because if Putin allows Georgia to come out of this alive, he will be understood to have given the West a good-faith way of saving face -- and to have invested Russian credibility in what Russia keeps saying it wants: a stable international system of sovereign states. It's in Russia's interest to make the lines of sovereignty as thick and bright as possible, and Georgia has only ever represented a serious threat to Russia's interests insofar as Russia has been deathly afraid of a breakaway epidemic in the south. Not entirely an unjustified fear, indeed, and Russia has proven quite willing to stake its whole reputation as a modern fighting force and near-great power on the suppression of breakaway movements. Chechnya was one definitive milestone on the road toward a full sense of Russian internal safety. This is another. For Putin to push that into an outcome justifiable only by preferences over external affairs would be for him to overreach and be underrewarded.

[Daniel Larison]

Thanks for keeping track of all these developments, James. I agree that Russia's best interests lie in reaffirming state sovereignty, both as a way to defend its own territorial integrity and guard against interventions against its satellites. It would surprise me if the Russians made a bid to conquer Georgia. I think they and everyone else understands that the world will not care if Russia reinforces its presence in South Ossetia, but will care very much if the Russians start shelling/occupying the Georgian capital. If the Russians are smart, they will not go the route Israel took with Lebanon and will limit their response to within the separatist regions.

[The Reticulator]

Why would you believe Putin when he says he wants stable borders and clear lines of sovereignty? All his actions say he wants his empire back? He may say he want clear lines of sovereignty in order to justify holding on to what he already has, but it's obvious he wants more.

When you get your next Mosfilm movie from Netflix, note that it says it's not for distribution in the former USSR. I suppose Mosfilm can restrict distribution any way it wants, but somebody still has an empire mentality when Georgia and the Ukraine are listed not by name, but as part of the former USSR.

I suppose you could say Mosfilm is laying down clear lines of sovereignty.

(I blog about Russian movies at kino.reticulator.com . Nothing profound, though. I just like Russian movies.)

[Alexander Sedov]

Hello from Russia!

Perhaps, you are interesting what Russian think about the War in South Ossetia. I don't pretend that my view is "main stream" in lot of opinions, but it's quite temperate wiew on the conflict as I see it from Russia.

Here is the link:

http://alek-morse.livejournal.com/15626.html

Here is the fragment of the text:

The all-out reactive bombing of Tskhinvalli (capital of South Ossetia) at night before the Beijing Olympics is very revealing example of new World order after Yugoslavia. The small Caucasus empire has relied on the global empire (USA), but another big empire (a.k.a. Russia) has decided to defend South Ossetia. Alas, Russia had too many reasons to do it, including the official agreements of peacemaking, the family ties between South and North Ossetia, and Russian citizenship of majority of the South-Ossetians. Finally, in this situation the demonstration of own weakness could be the extremely negative factor for Russia in Caucasus (and in the World too). Even worse than a local war conflict. Imagine, what would the North-Ossetians say if Russian government doesn’t suppress Georgian war attacks against civils in South Ossetia?

Read more:

http://alek-morse.livejournal.com/15626.html