As I suggested earlier, the candidates seem especially unable to command their constituents when it comes to second choices. Cue Ross with some empirical analysis:
from Tom Bevan at the RCP blog:
Giuliani dropping out helps McCain, right? Well, not so fast. According to the exit polls, 49% of those who voted for Rudy today picked Mitt Romney as their 2nd choice while 44% picked McCain. And, interestingly, those who voted for Huckabee overwhelmingly picked McCain as their top 2nd choice over Mitt Romney, 54% to 32%.
If that pattern holds outside Florida, having Rudy out and Huck still in could actually give Romney an unexpected boost going into February 5th. Just not nearly enough of one, I think, to stave off what looks like an inevitable defeat.
Maybe/probably. Nor do I think Huck can order any army of Huckazombies to march in legion toward the old McCain house. Probably a lot would go anyway. But McCain is going to have to work for his conservative votes. They're not going to shrug and head over of their own accord, and their first-choice flagging candidates aren't able to give them a decisive shove, either. The media does that better. And anyone who was even thinking seriously about endorsing Romney is well-advised to do it now.
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