Paradox

I would like to think my endorsement of Mitt Romney [see below] is not some kind of death-kiss. Andrew helps bring on an even bigger headache:

The exit polls show the critical distinction between Romney and McCain supporters. Romney's are still pro-Bush. McCain's aren't. If you're fighting a general election this fall, you'll need those who disapprove of Bush's record - not the kool-aid drinkers.

But McCain offers an administration far more contiguous with Bush's than Romney offers. There are blips of deviation. I assume the waterboarding would stop and troop levels in Iraq would rise even higher. Anyone wanting a departure from Bushdom would be insane not to look at Romney's profile and say "Elect this man at once." But Romney had to run to the right of McCain (not hard to do), and in the moronic world of conventional wisdom, egged on daily by the press, that meant he was obviously running closer to Bush than McCain. This is madness. In spite of my Mitt endorsement, there is still a lot to recommend McCain for the job. Bottom line is I think Romney would make the better President -- not just cranking out Conservative Outcomes but governing more conservatively -- and indeed I think that this is an easy case to make, that the whole problem with Bush was that he has been unsteady and unconservative in his governance, and that if you like that style of leadership you'll love McCain, who will govern like Bush would have had he no need for a brain trust. That might result in some fine policies -- I don't hate McCain at all, and I agree with him fundamentally (after a lot of contemplation) on amnesty (but not guest workers) and waterboarding and other stuff.

The central paradox of this campaign is that Romney should be where McCain is because Romney is the true alternative to Bushism, but while McCain was dying over the summer Romney was pushed by Fred and Huckabee into a desperate contest for Bush-loving conservatives.  But conservatives shouldn't love Bush for a much more intense version of the same reasons why they don't love McCain. Somehow hating McCain is fun and easy for these people but dumping their failed President is a cognitive impossibility. If this is the reason why Romney can't get nominated -- and I think it is -- it's an expensive lesson to learn but one that shouldn't make him feel too bad about himself.

There was always a chance for Bushism to work well, in spite of everything I've said. And my hope for McCain, as we move forward in a race that I'm not yet ready to call, is that, if he does carry his mo forward and then get elected President, he manages to purify Bushism, because the Republican party does indeed need to shape up and here's how you could do it:

* A grand bargain of zero new illegal immigration and no guest-worker program in exchange for a rolling amnesty program [over the dead body of big business]

* A clear public statement that the US will not preemptively bomb Iran [over the dead body of the neos]

* A goal of halting the growth of spending in the first year and then reversing it, including entitlement and military spending [yeah right]

* An agreement to make the Bush tax cuts permanent, boost hydrogen funding massively, end the stupid ethanol plan, reverse NCLB, vote on all Bush judge appointees, install a moratorium on free trade agreements, appoint Romney to head a health care commission, appoint Obama UN ambassador...

If anyone can do these kinds of things, McCain can, but institutional inertia is a powerful thing. I will say that if you can't think of anything worse than Hillary Clinton being president, this whole post is moot, because McCain should be able to trounce her if she actually succeeds in getting away from this Obama Debacle with her career intact.

Comments

[Sameer]

A moratorium on free trade agreements? Why?

[William Burns]

Zero new illegal immigration? How's that supposed to work? The King Canute policy?

[James]

(1) Because right now we're doing it apparently to stop Hugo Chavez from, like, conquering Colombia or something and (2) I don't know about King Canute, but certainly we can pump up the border and punish bad hiring policies....

[Yo]

End the stupid ethanol plan...yes
Boost hydrogen funding...?
Hydrogen has never made sense, and never will. Ask any actual scientist.

[Joseph A. Miller]

Extend the tax cuts?? And where, exactly, are we going to find the $4.3 TRILLION to replace them or make up for them in spending cuts? Has it occurred to anyone that paying taxes in wartime is a patriotic act? In WWII not only did taxes rise but the American people loaned the government the 2008 equivalent of $750 billion. Where is that sense of sacrifice any more? We're already $10 trillion in the hole. The Chinese already have us over a financial barrel. And you want to extend the tax cuts? My God.