Russia Serves Me Crow

Or maybe not crow, insofar as I said Russia could press into Georgia but would be extremely foolish to do so. But some unappetizing undomesticated bird. The presumptive aim here is to crush the Georgian military as a fighting force and overthrow Saakashvili. And although Georgia would be better off without Saakashvili, and only really needs an army to protect itself against the Russians, obviously the next question for Putin assuming that joint aim is secured is why not make Georgia as much a puppet as Abkhazia and South Ossetia?

The answer is equally obvious, alas: the Georgians will not go down without a fight that will make Chechnya a sweet reminiscence and the Siege of Leningrad look like a cakewalk. On the three big issues dominating Georgia -- Abkhaz and Ossetian final status and the person of Saakashvili himself -- the West has been extraordinarily weak and has known it. The West has had no good claim to settling those issues against Russian interest. By leaps and bounds, the claim against the destruction of the Georgian army and the occupation of inarguably Georgian soil is much stronger, and the stakes are much higher, and unless the Russian incursion stops within 24 hours tops this business is going to go from serious to grave to ugly to brutal and worse. 

We should pause here to note a few important things:

(1) The same people who will insist that they saw this coming will also insist that the Russians are utterly unpredictable and can never be trusted. This kind of cognitive dissonance will not help clearer Western heads prevail.

(2) Aforementioned people will insist that had Georgia been brought into NATO, none of this would have happened...ostensibly because the unfathomably crafty and evil Russkies would have been cowed into prudent defensiveness by Georgian membership. The anti-Russia crowd still has to do the impossible to prove their point, which is to assert that, post-membership, Abkhazia and South Ossetia would have ceased to be the problems that inspired such a gamble from Saak as they did. In fact, they likely would have become even greater problems, and at any rate powder kegs that could have touched off by now a militarized crisis of literally global proportions -- which would have ended with not me but NATO eating crow, because the West is not anytime soon going to war with Russia, not even to save a NATO member. 

(3) That is the real bottom line, whatever happens: Russia can do as it wants with Georgia. Not that there won't be severe penalties -- there will be. Putin makes those calculations -- and miscalculations -- at his peril. The real bottom line is a tragic one: Saakashvili drove his country headlong into an unnecessary war, and Putin seems set to press forward with an even less necessary conflict -- squandering a golden opportunity to reach final status in the Caucasus without destroying any shred of basic good will, or even begrudging patience, in the West. Daniel and I continue to be of one mind on the whole issue.

Comments

[The Reticulator]

I claim to have seen this coming, and have never claimed Russia was unpredictable, nor have I ever in my entire life heard anyone make that claim. In fact, this was all too predictable. It's an old, old story that has been played out by imperialists since at least Roman times. (And watching Russian TV, as I have been doing frequently over the past few years, gave me enough clues even though I don't understand much of the language.)

As to whether bringing Georgia into NATO would have prevented this, or whether it was even a good idea, I am not so sure. George Bush won't even help a friend like Taiwan defend itself, so I am not sure NATO membership would have counted for much. I would be willing to listen to arguments to the contrary, though.

I don't see any real downside for Russia in doing this. Of course it will do it in stages, to get people to accept one move at a time, just like all good imperialists do (including the U.S.) Yes, Vladimir Vladimirovich cares a lot about what the outside thinks. But if he takes it one step at a time he can deal with it.

[Daniel Larison]

Reticulator--you must not read Anne Applebaum, then. You may be right that this is not a universal or even a frequently-made claim, but I'm surprised that you've never heard it. It is a basic trope of arguments that portray other states and peoples as irrational, "mysterious" and non-Western. It is more often deployed nowadays against the Iranians, but it is sometimes used to make the Russians seem more menacing.

[The Reticulator]

Yes, I read Anne Applebaum's book -- just a few months ago. But I didn't take any message about "unpredictability" from it. Churchill once said "enigma" but I never even took that to mean unpredictable.

Well, I see that Applebaum said unpredictable in her column. OK, I'll admit that I am often surprised by what I've learned about Russia from Russian movies. In a way, the past has been unpredictable -- like when I hear a pro-free-market lecture in a Russian movie from 1982. And Russian movie censors have not always been predictable when it comes to what they will allow.

In foreign policy, the exact details of what any country will do, and the exact timing, can often be hard to predict. But I don't see how Russia's goals and general strategy can be seen as unpredictable when they have been broadcast so openly.

Exactly what did people think Russia was doing with that big parade on May 1? What message did they think Russia was trying to send?

[Josh SN]

Russia is not going to start a land war in Georgia (proper).

Russia is not going to stand for Saakashvili staying power, either.

Russia has nothing personal against democracy, but putting Yuschenko and Saakashvili in power on their borders was putting anti-Russian "democrats" in power, and that, naturally, they don't like.

Ukraine won't fall, I don't suspect, if people stay reasonable, because Ukraine isn't about to invade breakaway wherever. There was a "sniper war" (wikipedia's term) from Aug 1 to Aug 7 in South Ossetia and Georgia decided to end it by brute force.

Russia has a big parade EVERY May 1st. Geesh!

[The Reticulator]

So Georgia and the Ukraine won't fall as long as they don't act like independent, sovereign states. That's nice.

And if you say this year's May 1 parade was just like the other May 1 parades, you weren't paying attention. It was covered even in the U.S. news.

[Myrhaf]

Saakashvili said, "If the whole world does not stop Russia, then Russian tanks will be able to reach any other European capital"

I think he's about to learn that there is a difference between Tbilisi and Paris.

[Joules]

I wonder if there was a deliberate decision to start this during the Olympics in order to gain something...distraction, publicity--just wondering.