One Surge at a Time?

Even that motto seems a bit much for some, like Kelley Vlahos:

[The mainstream media-reinforced] narrative seems to be that a “surge” will work anywhere. Unquestioningly, the media will report additional troops in Afghanistan with no mind on how they will get there. The White House said in April that it would not even consider putting more troops in Afghanistan before Iraq was at pre-surge levels (virtually admitting the lack of flexibility in our force strength). It seems that’s about to happen, though, so isn’t this the perfect time to question how many “surges” our Army can take before we are off and running in another direction?

Sure, but it sets off a truncated little exchange. As is probably now well-known, my paleo sympathies are flown at full mast from several of the weirder and more captivating parapets atop the pomocon mansion-fortress, but I'm not feeling too groovy about the Vlahos plan. Here's why.

First, as lame is it is for the White House to go back on yet another promise or prediction, the main question isn't whether it's wise to surge in an Afghan Overlap per se but whether the Armed Forces can bear that kind of strain. Yet as much as I color that argument with the relevance it deserves, it's framed, in short order, by the more dominant question of whether our foothold on control over Afghanistan is significantly endangered by not surging there, like, now. 

In other words, Iraq redux: only, Bush's infamous line as to why the original surge would happen at once and also work -- "because it has to" -- carries a much different valence in an Afghan context. Nobody wants to lose or leave there, unlike in Iraq. (A mere observation that.) And it is pretty well arguable that losing in Afghanistan would be a much more serious problem than losing in Iraq. (Why? No allied regional powers to fill the vacuum; impossible terrain to root out terrorists who have learned from last time; Pakistan now in a period of extreme uncertainty and weakness; Iran stronger and more assertive now than last time, with fewer international responsibilities and attention and restrictions to its east than west; much tinier local population probably wholly unable to prevent any incoming power from seizing operative control in cahoots with the Taliban; horrible excuse for Russia to reassert itself in Central Asia, to do what the West has clearly failed to do; etc., etc.)

Afghanistan, in short, is a place where all the basic neocon arguments about Iraq become much more broadly American arguments. If paleos want to see the neos fade from influence like yesterday, dumping on an Afghan surge isn't going to get the job done. Not unless, of course, the Armed Forces really do crack under the strain, and/or we really do bankrupt the Treasury, despite turning the Iraqi government a profitable surplus. But then we'll have much bigger problems on our hands than the Kagan family, who at that point will be beaten from the bushes anyway and flogged like wombats gone wrong.

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