Disconnected thoughts are in; bold predictions are out.
(1) Allegations that Fred Thompson has always been running a vanity campaign seem hard to square with his diligent effort not to appear publicly at every opportunity:
Last night I talked with Cyndi Mosteller, a strong social conservative who headed the Charleston County Republican Party from 2003 to 2007 and who supports McCain. When I asked about Thompson, she said. "He was the most anticipated candidate that I have ever seen. So many people on the ground were ready to run the ball for him, and they showed up in strength, but he didn't really show up in strength. I think that probably Thompson is more of a private person. I don't really think he's cut out for the public run required of public office. I think it's almost a personality thing; it's certainly not an ideological thing. It's like the public energy and the will to run are a little bit lacking there." Talk to other South Carolina conservatives, no matter who they supported, and you'll hear similar opinions. Thompson had a huge opportunity here. -- Byron York
But if Fred's role is now restricted to helping McCain win states, he certainly should not drop out yet. And though Fred's third-place finish, squeaking past Romney, was understood (by, e.g., McCain supporters) to damage Romney specifically, it's obvious that Huckabee is the one who would most like to see Fred disappear, and Fred's continued presence in the race surely helps Romney's delegate strategy by keeping the field split over a longer duration. I've never thought Fred would peel off Romney supporters, which is funny in a way, but also showed since the beginning just how much room there was for conservative candidates. And then Huckabee started filling up that room.
(2) But Huckabee, even if he can pull a strong result in Florida (where probably McCain will win), is doomed in California, where McCain will put up a strong run but Mitt will also win. Intuitively, it's McCain who bizarrely seems more popular on the East Coast and Mitt on the West. But I wouldn't push that too far. I do think the geographical/sectional aspect of the campaign is very screwy with the exception of Huckabee whose appeal seems increasingly localized.
(3) It's amazing how nobody actually cares about Rudy Giuliani. He is now officially superfluous. I don't doubt that he could win delegates in big states...if he seemed in some important way different than the other guys. But he doesn't. Strangely, he actually is -- mostly in bad ways -- but that's the primaries for you.
(4) Hillary is a nightmare and since NH every act and statement coming out of either Clinton has basically been repulsive, manipulative, shrill, fake, or all four. Thinking Democrats understand this, on the blogs, in the street, elsewhere. But of course that may not matter. Or it might matter in an electoro-quirkfest way. I hope for a long campaign, but I am already instantly tired of hearing how well Hillary did among however it is they've defined Latinos in Nevada. How eagerly the Clinton camp will run so as to chuck over or piss off all the Democrats' longest core constituencies, and then come fawning back as soon as that little bastard Obama is laid low. Gross.
(5) A Mitt-McCain showdown will probably be fractious and awful, and probably what we'll get. The reason to pick one or the other in that case will depend on whether Hillary is destined for the nomination. If Obama wins out, Republicans will gasp out a sigh of relieved exhaustion and pull their own lever blind.
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